As NASA prepares the Space Shuttle for its final missions, it does so knowing that the moment the shuttles retire, the U.S. will, for the first time since the dawn of manned space flight, lack a vehicle capable of transporting humans into Earth orbit.  This precarious position will force NASA temporarily to rely on Russia, its formal rival, for transportation of Astronauts and equipment to the International Space Station.   NASA’s decades old misguided mission has squandered the foundation of technological clout and competencies of manned space flight developed by its founding generation.   And although President Obama has laid out clear goals for the agency, there’s nothing preventing change-orders issued by the next administration from continuing the expensive cycle of cancelled projects and partial commitments to future space exploration programs.   This lack of long term focus and bureaucratic meandering may, more than anything, be the reason NASA should get out of the manned space flight and low Earth orbit cargo deployment businesses permanently.

Tomorrow, Elon Musk’s SpaceX will launch its Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral in Florida.  Musk, as founder of Paypal, used the proceeds of that company’s sale to Ebay to start two companies with paradigm shifting implications for their respective industries.  Tesla motors is on the verge of bringing electric cars to the masses.   SpaceX is on the verge of dismantling the monopoly the world’s governments have on space flight – and given NASA’s current situation, this Falcon 9 test launch couldn’t be more perfectly timed.

“The Falcon launch vehicle family is designed to provide breakthrough advances in reliability, cost, flight environment and time to launch. The primary design driver is and will remain reliability…  We recognize that nothing is more important than getting our customer’s spacecraft safely to its intended destination.  Like Falcon 1, Falcon 9 is a two stage, liquid oxygen and rocket grade kerosene (RP-1) powered launch vehicle.  It uses the same engines, structural architecture (with a wider diameter), avionics and launch system.” — SpaceX

SpaceX Falcon 9 Rocket - Via SpaceX.com

Profiting in an industry as expensive and technologically challenging as that of space flight is not going to be easy for SpaceX or any other company testing the limits of non-government funded space travel.   Significant government financial aid will be required to assist in private development of the infrastructure a viable company will need to undertake NASA’s former space taxi role.   SpaceX has already been awarded government contracts worth billions of dollars to hoist supplies to the International Space Station upon retirement of NASA’s Space Shuttle.  But the assistance could easily pay off as SpaceX launches could save NASA up to $300 million dollars per launch.

“In December 2008, NASA announced the selection of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 launch vehicle and Dragon spacecraft to resupply the International Space Station (ISS) when the Space Shuttle retires.  The $1.6 billion contract represents a minimum of 12 flights, with an option to order additional missions for a cumulative total contract value of up to $3.1 billion.” — SpaceX

There is more riding on tomorrow’s planned test flight than just the success or failure of a launch platform.   While SpaceX is being conservative in its expectations of the mission, its success will prove that the private sector can handle the launch portion of NASA’s workload.   Success could encourage companies around the world, especially in countries like China, India, and Japan, whose governments are in the nascent stages of developing their own space programs, to enter the market, thus skyrocketing innovation and competition within the sector.   As private mastery of launches improves, this will serve as a stepping stone by which human exploration of space can finally be driven by the human desire to exploit it – thus taking humanity further towards other worlds than any government sponsored program could possible conceive.

Update 1: Watch the launch live below…

Update 2: From the SpaceX website – “It looks as if we may have experienced a shutdown condition just after ignition.  In these situations the vehicle puts itself into “safe mode”.  There may be the chance to “recycle” the count and try again.”

We’ll stay on top of this.  Check back often for updates…

Update 3: A second attempt is underway.  The countdown has begun…

Update 4: We have liftoff…

Update 5: Successful launch, stunning video, worth watching every second of it…