“In three years time, desktops will be irrelevant.” – Google Europe’s John Herlihy, 2010

Google’s a great company with typically great foresight.   Having recognized the significant market trends that drive its industry, such as the rise of mobile Internet usage on smartphones, Google adapted its core business model from one providing search based advertising into that of a mobile and cloud based software and hardware developer.  It’s Android mobile OS, Chrome web browser, and vast number of online services now directly compete with companies, such as Apple and Microsoft, traditionally outside of its core market.   All of this historical evidence makes the statement above by a high level Google Europe executive that much more surprising for its narrow mindedness and complete lack of basis.

I’ve been reading about the decline of the desktop computer for years.   Once a bulky box on which heavy CRT monitors sat, the desktop evolved into the class of sleek tower PC’s to which we’re now all familiar.   And this evolution continues, as small form factor desktops continue their development.   Somehow, throughout 30 years of computer industry progression, the desktop has survived – and for several reasons.

Let’s start with the obvious.   It’s called a desktop because it sits on or near a desk.   Desks throughout history have been where people do work, thus the productivity tools offered by computing in general were and still are a perfect match for this setting.   The ubiquity of cubicles and offices with desktop computers in business is undeniable.   The desktop is well suited for the business environment.   Its a proven stable platform with mature technology and non-premium pricing that typically lasts for several years, a dream machine for business technology procurement agents.   For many people not living on the “cutting edge” of PC technology, the desktop computer provided for them at their job is where they spend the majority of their computing-time.

Desktops serve other important computing roles not well suited to portables or cloud based services.  They’re typically the most powerful platforms available.   Engineers, designers, graphics artists, gamers, and anyone needing to run the most processor intensive tasks rely on desktop computers to run their software.  Their volume is a necessary attribute.   Nobody’s squeezing a liquid cooled heat-pipe into a laptop.

Now I’m the first to admit the benefits of cloud based computing and the products that use it.   It’s convenient and innovative.   But some may be concerned with the general loss in direct control of their data.   Cloud outages effect vast numbers of people, many of which may have been clinging to a false sense of data security.   Well secured data on a desktop computer remains in direct control of its owner.

So let’s not count out the desktop computer just yet.  Definitely not within the next 3 years.   While overall consumer demand may continue to drop, its important to remember that there are many well-matched market segments for desktop computers.

[Via: CrunchGear]